Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.025314 0.028778 0.032557 0.036989 0.042049 0.047649 0.054324
2025-02-16 0.019581 0.024232 0.029767 0.036849 0.045689 0.056384 0.070343
2025-02-23 0.016579 0.021725 0.028215 0.037025 0.048714 0.063745 0.084631
2025-03-02 0.014230 0.019532 0.026543 0.036531 0.050459 0.069290 0.096846
2025-03-09 0.012850 0.018362 0.025959 0.037247 0.053690 0.076922 0.112502
2025-03-16 0.011426 0.016918 0.024767 0.036874 0.055208 0.082146 0.125118
2025-03-23 0.010665 0.016319 0.024677 0.038021 0.058971 0.090897 0.143804
2025-03-30 0.009450 0.014891 0.023181 0.036835 0.058980 0.093856 0.153678
2025-04-06 0.008571 0.013884 0.022210 0.036332 0.059945 0.098311 0.166301
2025-04-13 0.007632 0.012681 0.020804 0.034957 0.059305 0.100023 0.174407
2025-04-20 0.007301 0.012439 0.020924 0.036110 0.062984 0.109241 0.196346
2025-04-27 0.006977 0.012176 0.020973 0.037128 0.066497 0.118460 0.219196
2025-05-04 0.006675 0.011932 0.021052 0.038237 0.070341 0.128750 0.245374
2025-05-11 0.006185 0.011311 0.020413 0.037992 0.071689 0.134641 0.263922
2025-05-18 0.005810 0.010860 0.020036 0.038180 0.073845 0.142212 0.286511
2025-05-25 0.005378 0.010263 0.019331 0.037669 0.074582 0.147093 0.304174
2025-06-01 0.005145 0.010024 0.019275 0.038408 0.077848 0.157244 0.333798
2025-06-08 0.004799 0.009531 0.018687 0.038024 0.078783 0.162747 0.354116
2025-06-15 0.004657 0.009433 0.018862 0.039207 0.083079 0.175603 0.391861
2025-06-22 0.004273 0.008808 0.017927 0.037983 0.082126 0.177213 0.404567
2025-06-29 0.003994 0.008376 0.017349 0.037463 0.082642 0.182030 0.425106
2025-07-06 0.003653 0.007788 0.016397 0.036044 0.081022 0.181942 0.434081
2025-07-13 0.003574 0.007753 0.016615 0.037235 0.085423 0.195892 0.478349